The IHS Markit study is based on mine plan scenarios studied in the 'Pebble Project Preliminary Economic Assessment' released by Northern Dynasty in September 2021 (further information on the Project Economics page on this site). Results are presented for the Proposed Project and the Production Year 5 Potential Expansion Scenario with Gold Plant - scenarios that represent the lowest and highest investment and production activity - for three time horizons:
the initial capital phase, common to both scenarios
Year 1 through Year 5, shows differences in the economic contributions between the scenarios due to capital investments to expand mine capacity and add the gold plant in Year 5 expansion
Year 6 through Year 20, allows for comparing the difference in "steady state" mining operations in both
As summarized in the table below, IHS Markit assessed the annual average economic contributions to employment, gross state product and other key metrics. Payments that could be provided to eligible and enrolled residents in southwest Alaska through the Pebble Performance Dividend (further information at www.pebbledividend.com), created by Northern Dynasty through its Pebble Partnership subsidiary, were also analysed in the IHS Markit study and are highlighted below.
This video includes certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements". All statements in this release, other than statements of historical facts, that address exploration drilling, exploitation activities and events or developments that the Company expects are forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes the expectations expressed in its forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements should not be in any way construed as guarantees of the ultimate size, quality or commercial feasibility of the Pebble Project, that the Pebble Project will secure all required government permits, or of the Company's future performance.
Mineral Resources: Current estimate of the Pebble deposit1 at a 0.3% CuEQ cutoff is:
6.5 billion tonnes in the combined Measured and Indicated categories at a grade of 0.40% copper, 0.34 g/t gold, 240 ppm molybdenum and 1.7 g/t silver, containing 57 billion pounds of copper, 71 million ounces of gold, 3.4 billion pounds of molybdenum and 345 million ounces of silver; and
4.5 billion tonnes in the Inferred category at a grade of 0.25% copper, 0.25 g/t gold, 226 ppm molybdenum and 1.2 g/t silver, containing 25 billion pounds of copper, 36 million ounces of gold, 2.2 billion pounds of molybdenum and 170 million ounces of silver.
In December 2017, Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (“NDM”) submitted a 404 permitting application with a Project Description for a smaller footprint 20-year mine plan for the Pebble Project, which uses a portion of the above resource; this does not preclude further development at a later date which would require application for additional permits2.
Potential Economic Benefits: Initial estimates of some of the benefits under the current development plan3 for the Pebble deposit are provided on the Economic Benefits page on this website.
This video should not be used as the basis of any investment decision.
Economic Contribution Assessment of the Proposed Pebble Project to the US national and state economies, IHS Markit, February 2022
Forward Looking Information and other Cautionary Factors
This report includes certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements" under the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and under applicable provisions of Canadian provincial securities laws. All statements in this release, other than statements of historical facts, which address permitting, development and production for the Pebble Project are forward-looking statements. The IHS Markit report is based on the production scenarios and related assumptions as presented in the 2021 PEA which has been filed on SEDAR and is available on EDGAR. The 2021 PEA is preliminary in nature, and includes Inferred mineral resources that are considered too speculative geologically to have economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorized as mineral reserves. There is no assurance that the 2021 PEA will be realized. Mineral Resources that are not mineral reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability, and there is no assurance that the Pebble Project mineral resources will ever be upgraded to reserves. The 2021 PEA assumes that the Proposed Project will ultimately be able to obtain the required permits from the USACE and state of Alaska authorities to enable development of the Proposed Project. Neither the 2021 PEA, nor the mineral resource estimates on which the 2021 PEA is based, have been adjusted for any risk that the Pebble Partnership may not be able to successfully appeal the record of decision issued by the USACE on November 25, 2020 denying the granting of the required permit under the Clean Water Act. Any changes to the production scenarios outlined in the 2021 PEA as a result of these factors could have a material impact on the projections implied by the IHS Markit report. These include statements regarding (i) the timing of the appeal process and the ability to successfully appeal the negative Record of Decision and secure the issuance of a positive Record of Decision by the USACE, (ii) the political and public support for the permitting process, (iii) the ability of the Pebble Project to ultimately secure all required federal and state permits, (iv) future metals prices, including the price of copper, (v) the right-sizing and de-risking of the Pebble Project, (vi) the design and operating parameters for the Pebble Project mine plan, including projected capital and operating costs, (vii) exploration potential of the Pebble Project, (viii) future demand for copper and gold, (ix) the potential addition of partners in the Pebble Project, (x) if permitting is ultimately secured, the ability to demonstrate that the Pebble Project is commercially viable, (xi) the EPA’s Proposed Determination process under the CWA and the impact of this process on the ability of the Pebble Partnership to develop the Pebble Project, and (xii) the ability and timetable of NDM to develop the Pebble Project. Although NDM believes the expectations expressed in these forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements should not be in any way be construed as guarantees that the Pebble Project will secure all required government permits, establish the commercial feasibility of the Pebble Project, achieve the required financing or develop the Pebble Project.
Forward-looking statements are necessarily based upon a number of factors and assumptions that, while considered reasonable by NDM as of the date of such statements, are inherently subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies. Assumptions used by NDM to develop forward-looking statements include the following assumptions, all of which are subject to risks (i) the Pebble Project will ultimately obtain all required environmental and other permits and all land use and other licenses , (ii) any feasibility studies prepared for the development of the Pebble Project will be positive, (iii) NDM’s estimates of mineral resources will not change, and NDM will be successful in converting mineral resources to mineral reserves, (iv) NDM will be able to establish the commercial feasibility of the Pebble Project, (v) NDM will be able to secure the financing required to develop the Pebble Project, and (vi) any action taken by the EPA in connection with the Proposed Determination will ultimately not be successfully in restricting or prohibiting development of the Pebble Project. The likelihood of future mining at the Pebble Project is subject to a large number of risks and will require achievement of a number of technical, economic and legal objectives, including (i) obtaining necessary mining and construction permits, licenses and approvals without undue delay, including without delay due to third party opposition or changes in government policies, (ii) finalization of the mine plan for the Pebble Project, (iii) the completion of feasibility studies demonstrating that any Pebble Project mineral resources that can be economically mined, (iv) completion of all necessary engineering for mining and processing facilities, (v) the ability of NDM to secure a partner for the development of the Pebble Project, and (vi) receipt by NDM of significant additional financing to fund these objectives as well as funding mine construction, which financing may not be available to NDM on acceptable terms or on any terms at all. NDM is also subject to the specific risks inherent in the mining business as well as general economic and business conditions, such as the current uncertainties with regard to COVID-19. Investors should also consider the risk factors identified in its Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2020, as filed on SEDAR and included in the Company’s annual report on Form 40-F filed by the Company with the SEC on EDGAR, and the Company’s Management Discussion and Analysis for the nine months ended September 30, 2021, as filed on SEDAR and EDGAR, for a discussion of the risks that may impact our forward-looking statements.
The National Environment Policy Act Environmental Impact Statement process requires a comprehensive “alternatives assessment” be undertaken to consider a broad range of development alternatives, the final project design and operating parameters for the Pebble Project and associated infrastructure may vary significantly from that currently contemplated.
For more information on the Company, Investors should review the Company's filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission at www.sec.gov and its home jurisdiction filings that are available at www.sedar.com.
